California increasingly looks to woody vegetation to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG)
mitigation goals by maximizing carbon sequestration while creating fire safe conditions. These
goals may be in conflict given that biomass, while a biochemical engine for fixation of
atmospheric CO2, also represents a store of potential energy released during fire. This project
aims to identify optima between forest carbon storage and fire safe conditions that also
maximize additional critical forest resources, here focusing on water. These natural system
dynamics are linked with top-down / bottom-up forces of policy, agency capacity, and
stakeholder risk assessment to identify opportunities for increased treatment application across
the coast range. Our study is centered on the Soquel State Demonstration Forest where a
series of fuels and forest treatments using thinning, mastication, and prescribed fire are in
preparation for 2021. These field studies will be used to assess treatment efficacy in terms of
forest health, specifically 1) living and dead fuels, 2) soil and biomass carbon storage, and 3)
surface and groundwater recharge. Using a combination of empirical pre/post treatment
evaluation and fire models, we will rank commonly applied forest health treatments in terms of
multiple objectives. These forest level experiments will be paired with a policy analysis of
liability limitation to prescribed fire activities, an assessment of local agency treatment capacity,
and stakeholder perception of risk. We aim to assess linkages between the natural and human
system dynamics by two expected linkages, 1) the influence of fire safe conditions on risk
perception and 2) management impacts to forest carbon and associated fuels. We expect fire,
carbon, and water (ecosystem) goals are met to varying degrees by the choice of forest
treatment and that many treatments represent tradeoffs between goals. However, we also
expect optima for carbon storage and fire safety to emerge that may also balance goals
associated with other critical resources (water). We propose an economic modeling framework
that links these natural system dynamics with policy, capacity, and risk perception. This
economic analysis is designed to identify policy and capacity changes needed to meet
California’s forest health treatment pace and scale goals for the coast range.

Cobb, R.C. The Intertwined Problems of Wildfire, Forest Disease, and Climate Change Interactions. Curr Forestry Rep 8, 214–228 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-022-00161-2

Contact Information:

Richard Cobb (PI)
rccobb@calpoly.edu

CAL FIRE Forest Health Research Program
FHResearch@fire.ca.gov