The California Fire Economics Simulator (CFES2)
Background
The California Fire Economics Simulator, Version 2 (CFES2) gives CDF managers a powerful tool to evaluate the department's initial attack fire protection organization. CFES2 facilitates a wide range of "what if" analyses to help managers anticipate the consequences of organizational changes by measuring the capability of initial attack forces to contain wildfires before they can become large and damaging.
The MS-DOS computer program is the culmination of years of development work by CDF and UC Berkeley researchers. CFES2 builds upon the knowledge gained during the development and use of a deterministic model, CFES-IAM Version 1, which was installed in CDF ranger units and contract counties around 1990. CFES-IAM Version 1 is based largely on the Initial Action Assessment (IAA) model of the National Fire Management Analysis System, which federal wildland fire agencies use to determine fire protection budget levels. IAA and CFES-IAM version 1 model initial attack organizations operating under "average" or "typical" fire season conditions, but CDF managers found they needed a model with greater realism, one that simulates critical conditions associated with initial attack system failure, including extreme fire spread rates and multiple fire starts.
CFES2 gets many of its key simulation parameters from probability distributions. These distributions provide a realistic simulation of fire starts, fire behavior and institutional response and productivity over time. CDF managers can achieve greater realism by including various constraints on the availability of fire suppression resources and through the use of new and sophisticated methods for modeling containment strategies and tactics.
The California Fire Plan uses CFES2 to determine the Level of Service (LOS) rating provided by the state-funded initial attack organization. The LOS rating is the ratio of successful fire suppression efforts to the total fire workload, and measures initial attack success and failure rates throughout California wildlands. This analysis will provide information to the Board of Forestry so that it may evaluate performance of the department in meeting its statutory mandate to provide "equal protection to lands of similar type."
Animations
Click here for an animated illustration of how the CFES2 model works.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION
Contact Jim Spero via e-mail at james.spero@cdf.ca.gov or by phone at (916) 227-2686.
Last edited April 23, 2001 by Jim Spero
