Enhance Public Benefits from Trees and Forests: Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities

Excerpted from the USDA Forest Service State and Private Forestry Farm Bill Requirement and Redesign Strategies (pdf):

America's forests offset a significant portion of the nation's annual carbon emissions. Additional climate change mitigation benefits could be achieved through partnerships and management measures. These measures include supporting the development of markets for carbon offsets, utilizing woody biomass for energy, wood product substitution, and promoting tree growth in urban areas. Assessments should identify opportunities for promoting carbon emissions offsets through forestry.

The important benefits that forests provide, such as biodiversity, wildlife habitat, and water storage and flows are affected by climate change. Forest range, type and composition are projected to change significantly– with corresponding changes in wildlife habitat, biodiversity, water flows, and fire regimes.

Assessments should consider how climate change will affect important public benefits from forests. Resource strategies should attempt to maintain and enhance resilient and connected forest ecosystems that will continue to provide public benefits in a changing climate.


Chapter Overview

This chapter includes three analyses. To support the first two analyses existing vegetation data and projections from a vegetation dynamics model (MC1) were used to estimate changes in forest carbon stocks over key time periods: 2010, 2020, 2050 and 2100. The first analysis was then conducted to evaluate threats to forest carbon from wildfire, insects and disease. A second analysis was conducted to evaluate potential threats to forest carbon from development. A third analysis, using the computer software BIOMOVE, was conducted to evaluate potential shifts in species ranges from future climate scenarios.

Full Chapter

Download the Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities chapter (.pdf).
Note: References (.pdf) (for all chapters) (for all chapters) and other information are found separately.

Methodology

Download the methodology document (.pdf) for Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities.

Maps, Data and Tables

Forest Carbon - Threats from Wildfire, Insects and Disease
  • Priority Landscape Map (.pdf)
  • (There is no enumeration table for this analysis.)
  • GIS Data (.zip format)
    Note: These data are provided to document the various Assessment analyses, and to provide the potential to replicate results. Updated versions of these datasets may be available from the various data providers.
Forest Carbon - Threats from Development
  • Priority Landscape Map (.pdf)
  • (There is no enumeration table for this analysis.)
  • GIS Data (.zip format)
    Note: These data are provided to document the various Assessment analyses, and to provide the potential to replicate results. Updated versions of these datasets may be available from the various data providers.
    • Priority Landscape
    • Threat: Development
      Used to represent potential future development, constrained by county general plans.
      • Input: EPA ICLUS Base Case Demographic Model
        Used to depict ICLUS Base Case demographic model for the U.S. EPA Integrated Land Use Climate System project based on U.S. Census Bureau (2000) block datasets.
    • Asset: Aboveground Carbon Stocks
      Used to estimate aboveground carbon stocks at different time periods (2010, 2020, 2050, and 2100).
      • Input: MC1 Carbon Model Outputs, FRAP (2009)
        Used to depict aboveground carbon variable outputs from the MC1 model.
        Please contact Chris Keithley if you are interested in this dataset.
    • Asset: Soil Organic Carbon
      Used to estimate belowground carbon stocks at different time periods (2010, 2020, 2050, and 2100).
      • Input: MC1 Carbon Model Outputs, FRAP (2009)
        Used to depict belowground carbon variable outputs from the MC1 model.
        Please contact Chris Keithley if you are interested in this dataset.
    • Other Data: Bioregions
      Used to summarize results for regional areas.

Climate Threat Index

Contact

  • For more information about Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities, please contact Chris Keithley, 916.445.5344.


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